Picking a winner for the Grand National is not easy…Arguably one of the highs and one of the most anticipated events in the horse racing calendar, the Grand National always attracts a significant amount of interest – even from those who do not necessarily engage with the sport regularly.
Over the decades, this race has not disappointed – I remember as far back as the late nineties when I was a kid – something I used to look forward to and indeed (ssh), getting my Gran to put me a bet on with the late Bindaree finally paying off for us in 2002!
Since then, it’s been a race that I have enjoyed watching, albeit, being a lottery, and I’ve had five more winners since of varying odds.
Can An Outsider Win The Grand National?
Over the years, we have seen quite a few considerable shocks in the Grand National – arguably, the most memorable being Mon Mome who came in at 100/1 in 2009! Four years later there was Aurora Encore at 66/1 – indeed, between 2012 and 2016, every winner had odds of 25/1 or more.
I’ve always said picking a winner for this race is incredibly hard, though sometimes there are signs, or you get a gut feeling, based on things like form, jockey, what the going is – though this can go completely the opposite. On two occasions my gut paid off – first with Comply Or Die, when just a couple of days previously I was watching the racing on TV at Aintree and I was impressed with one of the winners that romped home. I looked for it in the National but it wasn’t running. Then I checked to see who the jockey was and what horse he was riding. That jockey was Timmy Murphy and at 12/1 I thought it was worth a fiver, especially considering there were great reports about the horse’s stamina. I enjoyed that one – he won by a distance!
Don’t Push It for me, seemed like an obvious choice in 2010, especially with a prolific AP McCoy atop. Hilariously a toss of a coin decided this fate, according to horse racing guru and now revered pundit, McCoy, whose name is firmly embedded in horse racing folklore.
I picked Ballabriggs in 2011, purely based on name and the fact I had little time to do any research and at 14/1 it was a nice little bonus as a soon-to-be graduate. Finally, last year, I Am Maximus was an obvious choice for me. At 7/1, I thought the value was incredible considering I had just watched jockey Paul Townend have an incredible Cheltenham.
Picking A Winner For The Grand National – Is There A Method For Picking A Winner?
Because there are so many runners in the Grand National and with it being such a long race, the vast majority comes down to luck. Even the hottest of favourites and best jockeys can find themselves in trouble, especially if they get stuck in the pack and are unable to make their move.
There have been occasions where the winner from the previous year has won it, though this only happens occasionally. It was in 2018 and 2019 when this last happened with Tiger Roll and invariably, discarding the favourite can probably be the best piece of advice!